China Taiwan – Following China’s recent military drills near Taiwan, daily life on the island seems largely unaffected
China Taiwan
Following China’s recent military drills near Taiwan, daily life on the island seems largely unaffected
The stock market in Taipei continues to rise, and the population appears to have adapted to the recurring episodes of tension. These military exercises were anticipated, especially after similar events in May in response to the inauguration of President Lai Ching-te. At that time, it was clear that further exercises would take place before the year’s end. China chose to carry out the operations after Lai’s speech on October 10, during Taiwan’s “Double Ten” celebration, marking the founding of the Republic of China, which Taiwan views as symbolizing its autonomous status. China Taiwan
Historically, October 10 has often been a period of heightened military friction between Beijing and Taipei. For instance, in 2021, 56 Chinese jets entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, setting a record. In contrast, during the latest exercises, over the span of just 12 hours, 153 aircraft were deployed, 90 of which entered Taiwan’s defense airspace. Yet, despite this, the Taiwanese population remains notably calm, a sign that they have grown accustomed to these constant tensions as part of a new normal.
The military maneuvers on October 14, 2024, represent China’s fourth large-scale demonstration of power around Taiwan in recent years. The first of these major exercises occurred in August 2022 in response to the visit of Nancy Pelosi, then Speaker of the United States House of Representatives. China Taiwan
That event had a profound impact on Taiwan, as it marked the first time China simulated naval blockades and launched ballistic missiles near the island, disrupting civilian flights and commercial shipping. Since then, though the intensity of the drills has never quite matched that first incident, Beijing has continued to conduct military operations with significant operational and symbolic implications. For example, in April 2023, following a visit by former Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen to the United States, China responded with three days of military exercises. During these drills, the Chinese aircraft carrier Shandong patrolled Taiwan’s eastern coast, which holds strategic importance as it is the only access point for potential foreign reinforcements in the event of conflict. The most recent exercises saw the involvement of the Liaoning aircraft carrier, which played a key role in coordinated simulations of sea, air, and ground combat. China Taiwan
China is implementing what is referred to as the “anaconda strategy,” a gradual but persistent encirclement of Taiwan aimed at slowly weakening the island’s defensive capabilities and willpower. The approach is not designed for an immediate invasion, but rather involves a series of actions meant to constrict Taiwan over time. This strategy evokes comparisons to the People’s Liberation Army’s capture of Beijing in 1948-1949, when the Kuomintang forces were surrounded and eventually surrendered with minimal bloodshed. China hopes that a slow, tightening blockade of Taiwan will lead to a peaceful capitulation, following a strategy of “smart reunification.” China Taiwan
One of the primary advocates of this strategy is Li Fei, a scholar at Xiamen University, who argues that Taiwan’s reliance on energy imports makes it highly susceptible to a prolonged naval blockade. According to estimates, the island could run out of energy supplies within three weeks if its access to imports were cut off. However, despite the growing pressure, a significant portion of the Taiwanese population does not seem overly concerned about the threat of an imminent conflict. A recent survey found that 61 percent of citizens believe it is unlikely that a war will break out in the next five years.
In China, the government is exhibiting strategic patience, seemingly biding its time to resolve the Taiwan issue at the opportune moment. China Taiwan
Recently, Xi Jinping met with former Taiwanese president Ma Ying-jeou, the first such meeting between a Chinese leader and a former Taiwanese head of state, to demonstrate that “peaceful reunification” is still on the table. Additionally, a rumor reported by the Financial Times suggested that Xi told European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen that the United States is attempting to provoke China into attacking Taiwan, but Beijing has no intention of falling into such a trap.
A significant variable in the Taiwan situation is the upcoming U.S. presidential election. If Kamala Harris were to win, continuity in U.S. policy is expected, with continued support for Taiwan through arms sales and diplomatic engagements. On the other hand, a victory by Donald Trump introduces more uncertainty; some speculate he might seek direct negotiations with Xi on Taiwan, while others predict he would double down on strengthening ties with Taipei. This uncertainty heightens tensions, especially if President Lai Ching-te were to visit the U.S. later in the year, which would likely provoke a strong response from China. China Taiwan
In conclusion, the ongoing tensions between China and Taiwan are unlikely to dissipate in the near future, and the situation could remain fraught for at least the next three and a half years, the duration of Lai’s first term in office. During this time, the risk of incidents that could escalate into a broader conflict remains ever-present. However, many hope that strategic patience and careful diplomacy will continue to prevail over aggressive military action.
China Taiwan